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Aviation risk explorer
Four ways to score the same flight — matrix, weighted, probabilistic, and tail-risk.
AviationRisk
Synthetic
Synthetic simulation for illustrating risk models. Not flight advice, and not a flight-planning tool.
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What it proves
Two flights with the same average risk can have very different worst cases. Decision tools should surface the tail.
How it works
- A weighted score sums each factor times its weight; the bar shows which factor dominates.
- A seeded Monte-Carlo run samples the uncertain factors to produce a p5–p95 band.
- CVaR averages the worst 10% of outcomes — the number that sits to the right of the mean.